Was the 2017 NFL Draft a Bust? Fifth-Year Options Declined At a High Rate
Last week was the NFL Draft, bringing new and, compared to veteran players, relatively inexpensive talent to help teams bolster their depth chart and have a chance at building a contender. Every year, we see teams find sleeper picks and some that ended up proving to be complete duds. There are the in-between guys too, ones who were close to league average but who inevitably didn’t live up to their lofty draft standing. The history books are littered with busts and mediocre players that came with so much hype and potential only to fizzle out. Recent drafts have been no exception and the tough part for teams is not doubling down on the mistake made initially by extending the fifth-year option or handling out a new deal all together.
The 2017 NFL Draft was full of hits and misses, just like any other NFL Draft has been. With that said, the league has seen teams get a little wiser as, instead of blindly going and using the fifth-year option on guys that have underachieved or been problem players, either off the field or in the locker room, teams are cutting their losses and declining that fifth-year option. Looking back to that draft, it seems that front offices realized that some of their choices weren’t the best ones and made the decision to cut their losses sooner rather than later.
Four of the top five picks from that draft and half of the top 10 selections had their fifth-year option for 2021 declined. Rather than overpay for mediocre production, teams decided to cut bait after this season and, should their players put together a bounce back season of sorts, potentially offer them a new deal for a more palatable cap number. As it stands, if a team exercises the fifth-year option on a player selected in the top-10 would be equivalent to the transition tag price for the position they play. For picks 11-32, the fifth-year option is the average of the third through 25th-highest paid players at a position. Six players in that group have had their option declined while a seventh (Taco Charlton) was waived. A couple of others (Malik Hooker, Haason Reddick) haven’t had their fate decided yet with the deadline looming Monday. That means that potentially 14 of the picks in the first round of that draft will have been declined for their option year.
In the top 10 from that draft, Mitch Trubisky, the second overall pick for the Bears, saw his option declined. In addition, third overall pick Solomon Thomas of the 49ers, along with running back Leonard Fournette for the Jaguars (fourth overall) and wide receiver Corey Davis (fifth overall) all saw their option years declined. The other top 10 pick that saw their deal declined was Cincinnati’s John Ross, who was picked with the ninth overall selection. Among the rest of the first-round selections that are slotted to be free agents after the 2020 season at this point include tackle Garrett Bolles (Denver, 20th), linebacker Jarrad Davis (21st, Detroit), defensive end Charlies Harris (22nd, Falcons), cornerback Gareon Conley (Texans, 24th), defensive end Takkarist McKinley (Falcons, 26th) and linebacker Reuben Foster (49ers, 31st) all saw their options declined.
Out of the picks in the top 10 that saw their deals declined, the majority of them were for lack of production. Trubisky never really materialized as the elite QB the Bears hoped for as he hasn’t thrown for more than 3,223 yards in a season. He now has to battle with former Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles for the starting job this season in the Windy City. Thomas started just three games last season with the 49ers and finished the year with only 21 tackles (15 solo), three tackles for loss and two sacks. His numbers have declined each season and simply wasn’t worth the price tag that was going to be handed out.
Fournette is the most productive player in the group as he recorded two 1000-yard seasons in his three years in the league. That included a career-high 1,152 yards on the ground plus 76 receptions for 522 yards. He has had some injury issues and problems both on and off the field. With the Jaguars looking at a potential rebuild, they don’t want to throw a ton of cash at a running back that has been known to have an attitude problem at times. With Davis in Tennessee, he hasn’t been a #1 receiver in his three years as his career-best numbers came in 2018 with 65 receptions for 891 yards and four scores. With the Titans being a run-oriented offense behind Derrick Henry, it makes no sense to shell out an eight-figure salary to a secondary or tertiary option. The same could be said for Ross, who was hyped up due to his blistering speed at the combine. Sadly, his inability to stay healthy has proven to be his undoing as he has only 49 receptions for 716 yards and 10 scores in his three NFL seasons.
As tough as it is to suffer through the backlash of a blown draft choice, at least these teams have realized their mistake rather than chasing after it with more money in hopes of recouping something in their investment. You have to give some credit for these teams making the tough decision to move on from their miscues.